J.H. Whitney

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J.H. Whitney

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Our core thesis for the firm and what we bring

To navigate today’s interconnected world, corporate and political entities require a deep understanding of the impact of geopolitical affairs and nation-state activities on global business operations, investments, and economic security. 

In this landscape of new challenges and threats, J.H. Whitney Investment Management believes in a central vision of providing cutting-edge analysis of geopolitical interests.

With an unwavering commitment to defending U.S. national security interests and assisting decision-makers in navigating the complex web of global risks, J.H. Whitney aims to act as the trusted partner for asset managers, institutional investors, corporate leaders, governments, and national security officials.

Investment Management

Direct investments in early-stage military and civilian technologies and advisory services associated with navigating nation-state competition in the economic domain.

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Data Services

Provides custom indices and geopolitical risk mitigation analytics, including a quantitative representation of geopolitical exposure in the form of our Geostrategic Risk Rating. Click here for press commentary.

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Publications

05/11/2024 | Nikkei Asia

Japan, U.S. and others to ease cross-border personal data transfers

Ten countries and regions, including Japan, the U.S., South Korea and the U.K., will facilitate the transfer of personal data across borders under a new framework as early as next month, Nikkei has learned, aiming to bolster e-commerce while emphasizing security.
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05/11/2024 | South China Morning Post

Xi Jinping, his tour over, leaves behind a Europe split by how to deal with China

Chinese President Xi Jinping departed Europe on Friday after a tour which revealed the deepening divisions on how different parts of the continent deal with Beijing.
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05/10/2024 | Bloomberg

Huawei Relies on China’s YMTC for Memory Chip in Latest Phone

Huawei Technologies Co.’s latest flagship smartphone has switched to a domestic supplier for a major component in another step toward building a wholly made-in-China device.
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05/10/2024 | Bloomberg

Chip Workers Are Likely to Quit Jobs, Worsening Labor Shortage

At a time when the US is looking to attract more skilled workers to semiconductor manufacturing, many current employees are rethinking whether they want to stick around, according to a McKinsey & Co. report that underscores the chip industry’s labor challenges.
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05/10/2024 | Bloomberg

Tokyo Electron Plans Record R&D Outlay Spurred by AI Chip Demand

Tokyo Electron Ltd. is planning record research and development outlays this fiscal year and gave an upbeat revenue forecast on a surging demand for AI-enabling infrastructure.
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05/10/2024 | Nikkei Asia

Next U.S.-China chip battle will require more than export controls

After initially focusing on restricting the transfer of advanced semiconductor technologies to China, officials are now signaling openness to the idea of restricting trade in "legacy" semiconductors made with older technologies as well.
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05/10/2024 | Nikkei Asia

Vietnam pledges more energy security as chip race heats up

Vietnam plans to secure sufficient energy supplies for chip and other technology companies, a state official told Nikkei Asia, acknowledging the difficult competition with neighbors like Malaysia for semiconductor investments.
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05/10/2024 | Nikkei Asia

Japan plays catch-up in igniting nuclear fusion development

Japan hopes to speed the country's development of nuclear fusion technology, catching up with target time frames put forward by other countries for testing the power source envisioned as crucial for decarbonization.
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05/10/2024 | Nikkei Asia

U.S. moves to sanction China military vendor CETC's chip arm

The U.S. Department of Commerce on Thursday added more Chinese companies to its Entity List, including CETC Chip Technology, one of the country’s largest military vendors.
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05/10/2024 | Nikkei Asia

AI memory emerges as new battleground for SK Hynix, Samsung and others

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, wearing his trademark black leather jacket and addressing a conference in March in San Jose, did not hide his enthusiasm for high bandwidth memory (HBM) chips. The founder of the company that has become synonymous with artificial intelligence chips called them a "technology miracle" and an essential part of the AI revolution.
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05/10/2024 | Nikkei Asia

Cambodia, Thailand draw $320m in investments from Japan's MinebeaMitsumi

Japanese parts supplier MinebeaMitsumi plans to invest nearly 50 billion yen ($321 million) to build a factory in Cambodia and increase solar power output at plants in Thailand, Nikkei has learned.
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05/10/2024 | Foreign Affairs

Infrastructure Is Remaking Geopolitics

The complex hardwiring and technological dependence of modern life have made people reliant on a wide array of infrastructure systems, and governments now compete to create and maintain the networks that deliver essential services, from electricity to clean water to telecommunications.
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05/10/2024 | South China Morning Post

New tech, old conflict: gallium claim pits US future priorities against environmental impact

Straddling the US states of Montana and Idaho, the Bitterroot National Forest with its rugged mountains, dense forests and pristine rivers has for decades offered locals livelihood, adventure and a connection with nature.
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05/10/2024 | South China Morning Post

Chinese chip makers, rocket developers form alliance to boost commercial space industry

The Commercial Space Industry Technology Alliance has been formed in China by universities, rocket makers and semiconductor companies in a bid to develop one of the key sectors deemed “a new growth engine” by Beijing.
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05/09/2024 | The Wall Street Journal

Neuralink’s First Brain-Chip Implant in a Human Appeared Flawless. There Was a Problem.

Neuralink encountered a problem with the implant in its first human patient, Noland Arbaugh, that reduced the amount of data it could capture from his brain, according to a blog post the company published on Wednesday. 
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05/09/2024 | The Wall Street Journal

Risk Professionals Take On Emergent AI, Climate Change and Global Conflict

Generative artificial intelligence, geopolitical tension, punishing climate events—the list of headaches for businesses’ risk managers can seem to be in a perpetual state of growth.
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05/09/2024 | Bloomberg

Pentagon Teams Up With SpaceX to Block Russia From Using Starlink

Pentagon officials working with Elon Musk’s SpaceX have blunted the Russian military’s unauthorized use of Starlink internet terminals on the battlefield in its war with Ukraine, according to the Defense Department’s space policy chief.
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05/09/2024 | Bloomberg

SMIC Profit Misses Estimates on Weak Chinese Consumer Sentiment

Net income was $71.8 million in the three months ended in March, compared to the average analyst estimate of $76.8 million, according to a company filing on Thursday. Revenue totaled $1.75 billion, versus analysts’ projection of $1.69 billion.
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05/09/2024 | Bloomberg

Intel’s Battered Bulls Find Hopes Dashed Again After Huawei Ban

After a 90% rally in its shares last year, the chipmaker hit another snag in its years-long effort to turn around its operations as it said a US ban on chip exports to Huawei Technologies Co. would pressure revenue.
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05/09/2024 | Bloomberg

UAE’s AI Ambitions Include Making Advanced Semiconductors

The United Arab Emirates is seeking support from the US to become a producer of advanced semiconductors, a crucial component of the supply chain for artificial intelligence, as part of its plans to be a leading hub for the technology.
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05/09/2024 | Bloomberg

Top Philippine Telco Seeks $1 Billion Valuation for Data Centers

PLDT Inc., the Philippines’ biggest telecom company, is seeking “north of $1 billion” valuation for its data center business as it weighs either a partial sale or a real estate investment trust listing for the assets.
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05/09/2024 | Nikkei Asia

Grading the CHIPS Act and the other costs of AI

Artificial intelligence is costly, and not only from a financial perspective. As more companies are building data centers to train large language models or power their AI services, demand for electricity is rising at record speed.
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05/09/2024 | Nikkei Asia

India and ASEAN rise in supply chain priority, global survey shows

Global business leaders are increasingly looking to India and Southeast Asia as alternative supply chain destinations while trade relations between China and the U.S. deteriorate, a poll by PwC published Thursday shows.
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05/09/2024 | Financial Times

The great American innovation engine is firing again

There is a view, pungently expressed by the venture capital investor Bill Gurley, that Silicon Valley has thrived because it is 2,850 miles west of the centre of federal government. “The reason that Silicon Valley has been so successful is because it is so fucking far away from Washington DC,” Gurley told a cheering audience last year.
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05/09/2024 | Foreign Policy

Washington Takes Its Cyber Strategy Global

The United States has spent two years supporting Ukraine in one ground war and seven months backing Israel in another, and it continues to prepare for the possibility of a third in Taiwan. But arguably its most persistent focus has been on a far longer-running, more perennial, borderless battle over cyberspace and the future of technology.
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05/09/2024 | Reuters

Huawei's new phone uses more China-made parts, memory chip

Huawei's latest high-end phone features more Chinese suppliers, including a new flash memory storage chip and an improved chip processor, a teardown analysis showed, pointing to the progress China is making towards technology self-sufficiency.
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05/09/2024 | Reuters

How dependent is China on US artificial intelligence technology?

The Biden administration plans to put guardrails on U.S.-developed artificial intelligence (AI) models that power popular chatbots like ChatGPT to safeguard the technology from countries such as China and Russia, Reuters has reported.
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05/09/2024 | South China Morning Post

China’s local governments swap debt for data as pressure builds to relieve burdens

China’s most indebted local governments have seized on a novel method to relieve some of their burdens – turning vast stores of data into credits on their balance sheets. The unusual approach, tested in certain localities and covering a small share of their total obligations, raises legality and sustainability questions.
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05/09/2024 | South China Morning Post

China’s use of RISC-V chip standard faces headwinds amid US scrutiny and Google’s end of Android support

China’s strengthened push to use RISC-V, an open-source chip-design architecture, to reduce reliance on foreign technologies is facing new challenges amid scrutiny by the United States and Google’s move to stop supporting the standard on Android.
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05/09/2024 | Bloomberg

Neuralink Rival Synchron Aims to Expand to Treat Parkinson’s

Synchron Inc. founder Tom Oxley said Thursday his brain-device company would expand beyond paralysis treatment into other areas such as epilepsy and Parkinson’s.
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05/09/2024 | Financial Times

China tech is seeking growth in the Middle East

China is the world’s largest importer of oil. For decades, countries in the Middle East, especially Saudi Arabia, have prioritised relations with China in order to safeguard a key customer. There has been less urgency on China’s side to reciprocate: its exports to the region have paled in comparison to its imports. That could now change.
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05/09/2024 | South China Morning Post

Alibaba says its Tongyi Qianwen AI models are used by over 90,000 corporate clients in China

Alibaba Group Holding said its self-developed large language models (LLMs) have been adopted by more than 90,000 corporate clients, as the Chinese tech giant competes against rivals to draw users to its generative artificial intelligence (AI) services.
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05/08/2024 | Financial Times

US revokes licences for supply of chips to China’s Huawei

The Biden administration has revoked export licences that allow Intel and Qualcomm to supply Huawei with semiconductors as Washington increases the pressure on the Chinese telecoms equipment company.
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05/08/2024 | Reuters

Apple's iPhone shipments in China rebound with 12% surge in March after price cuts

Apple iPhone shipments in China increased by 12% in March after the company and its retailers reduced prices, according to data from a research firm affiliated the Chinese government.
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05/08/2024 | Reuters

US official says Chinese seizure of TSMC in Taiwan would be 'absolutely devastating'

U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said Wednesday a Chinese invasion of Taiwan and seizure of chips producer TSMC would be "absolutely devastating" to the American economy.
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05/08/2024 | Nikkei Asia

Huawei breaks free from Google ecosystem with homegrown OS

Huawei Technologies looks to complete its departure from Google's Android operating system this year with the rollout of a new OS developed fully in-house, further sidestepping U.S. export controls that had cramped the Chinese company's mobile business.
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05/08/2024 | Xinhua

U.S. ban on chip exports for Huawei is "economic coercion": China ministry

China's Ministry of Commerce on Wednesday accused the United States of "economic coercion" over the revocation of export licenses that permitted companies to supply chips to Chinese tech giant Huawei.
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05/08/2024 | Yicai Global

Apple, Huawei Launch New Tablets on Same Day

US tech giant Apple and its biggest rival in China, Huawei Technologies, both released their latest tablet computers and other smart products yesterday as competition in the high-end intelligent device market intensifies.
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05/08/2024 | The Wall Street Journal

South Korea Plans $7 Billion Push to Pivot EV Battery Industry Away From China

The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy in Seoul said Wednesday that it will provide 9.700 trillion won ($7.14 billion) in state financing to the local EV-battery industry this year to build up the country’s supply chain to continue to benefit from U.S. rules.
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05/08/2024 | Bloomberg

US Justice Department Steps Up Focus on Competition in AI

The US Justice Department is stepping up its focus on competition in the artificial intelligence industry, top officials said, as Big Tech companies invest billions of dollars to gain an edge in the new technology.
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Team Blog

Weekend Reading

05/09/2024

Team Commentary

Perhaps spurred on by our blog comment last week focusing on the “sclerotic” nature of  US Policy towards Huawei, the Department of Commerce yesterday revoked certain export licenses that allowed Qualcomm and Intel to sell chips used for laptops and handset to Huawei effective immediately. USA vs Huawei remains the primary battle line with multiple skirmish points  in the broader Technology Leadership contest. Also yesterday the China Academy of Information released a reported  a 12% bounce in IPhone sales in China BUT this was powered by price discounts in a very un- Appley way. In the ongoing tablet skirmish,  Huawei and Apple both introduced new high performance tablets, coincidently on the same day, with Apple priced at  $599 -$999 for the iPad Pro and iPad Air respectively. Huawei launched its MatePad priced at $428 and features the latest Huawei Operating System Harmony OS 4.2 which will also be in the latest Huawei H70 handset shipments. Huawei tablet sales are up 70% year over year.

05/08/2024 | Financial Times

US revokes licences for supply of chips to China’s Huawei

The Biden administration has revoked export licences that allow Intel and Qualcomm to supply Huawei with semiconductors as Washington increases the pressure on the Chinese telecoms equipment company.
Read More

05/08/2024 | Reuters

Apple's iPhone shipments in China rebound with 12% surge in March after price cuts

Apple iPhone shipments in China increased by 12% in March after the company and its retailers reduced prices, according to data from a research firm affiliated the Chinese government.
Read More

05/08/2024 | Nikkei Asia

Huawei breaks free from Google ecosystem with homegrown OS

Huawei Technologies looks to complete its departure from Google's Android operating system this year with the rollout of a new OS developed fully in-house, further sidestepping U.S. export controls that had cramped the Chinese company's mobile business.
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05/03/2024

Team Commentary

This week we focus on the ongoing campaign to deter, dissuade, and deny Huawei from Western telecommunications networks and limit the activities of Chinese network operators in the U.S. Our first featured article, entitled “FCC asks for more money to help telecom providers replace Huawei and ZTE gear,” comments on the somewhat sorry state of the Huawei rip and replace program started 4 years ago after President Trump mandated the removal of  Huawei and ZTE equipment from rural wireless carriers. The result is a well intended policy with poor execution and some negative externalities. Unsurprisingly, they need more time and more money (subsidies). We shed no tears for the wireless carriers who made a business decision to buy cheaper equipment with known security vulnerabilities and installed it in close proximity to sensitive U.S. Government facilities. They took a risk and it didn’t work out. Pay up and move on.

We also include an article focusing on how the FCC has ordered Chinese telecom carriers operating in the US to discontinue fixed or mobile internet or broad operations in the US. Two observations: (1) what took you so long, and (2) any company still using these carriers in the U.S. should be on the Darwin Awards short list.

05/03/2024 | The Washington Post

Funding shortfall for new tech endangers rural cell service, FCC says

Jerry Whisenhunt, general manager of Pine Telephone Company in a rural corner of Oklahoma, has some choice words about the Washington bigwigs who ordered him to rip up his mobile network but have failed to cough up the promised funding to help him replace it.

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05/03/2024 | The Washington Post

Funding shortfall for new tech endangers rural cell service, FCC says

Jerry Whisenhunt, general manager of Pine Telephone Company in a rural corner of Oklahoma, has some choice words about the Washington bigwigs who ordered him to rip up his mobile network but have failed to cough up the promised funding to help him replace it.

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05/02/2024 | The Washington Post

Funding shortfall for new tech endangers rural cell service, FCC says

Jerry Whisenhunt, general manager of Pine Telephone Company in a rural corner of Oklahoma, has some choice words about the Washington bigwigs who ordered him to rip up his mobile network but have failed to cough up the promised funding to help him replace it.
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05/02/2024 | The Washington Post

Funding shortfall for new tech endangers rural cell service, FCC says

Jerry Whisenhunt, general manager of Pine Telephone Company in a rural corner of Oklahoma, has some choice words about the Washington bigwigs who ordered him to rip up his mobile network but have failed to cough up the promised funding to help him replace it.
Read More

05/02/2024 | The Washington Post

Funding shortfall for new tech endangers rural cell service, FCC says

Jerry Whisenhunt, general manager of Pine Telephone Company in a rural corner of Oklahoma, has some choice words about the Washington bigwigs who ordered him to rip up his mobile network but have failed to cough up the promised funding to help him replace it.
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05/02/2024 | South China Morning Post

US agency FCC bars Chinese telecoms carriers from offering broadband services

The Federal Communications Commission said on Thursday it is ordering the US units of China Telecom, China Unicom and China Mobile to discontinue fixed or mobile broadband internet operations in the United States.
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05/02/2024 | Bloomberg

Huawei Profit Surges 564% As It Eclipses Apple in China

Huawei Technologies Co.’s profit rose for the fourth consecutive quarter, a sign the Chinese tech company is taking market share from Apple Inc. and other smartphone rivals.
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05/02/2024 | The Washington Post

Funding shortfall for new tech endangers rural cell service, FCC says

Jerry Whisenhunt, general manager of Pine Telephone Company in a rural corner of Oklahoma, has some choice words about the Washington bigwigs who ordered him to rip up his mobile network but have failed to cough up the promised funding to help him replace it.
Read More

05/02/2024 | The Washington Post

Funding shortfall for new tech endangers rural cell service, FCC says

Jerry Whisenhunt, general manager of Pine Telephone Company in a rural corner of Oklahoma, has some choice words about the Washington bigwigs who ordered him to rip up his mobile network but have failed to cough up the promised funding to help him replace it.
Read More

04/25/2024 | Center for Strategic & International Studies

Pursuing Global Order in the Twenty-First Century

Amid shifting global power balances, renewed international contestation, and growing transnational challenges, understanding how the world order is changing has never been more critical.
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04/25/2024 | Bloomberg

Hot Wars, Cold Wars, Trade Wars: Geoeconomic Risk Global Outlook

War in Ukraine, war in the Middle East, a Biden-Trump election rematch, Europe catching up to the darker US view on trade with China, and a new president in Taiwan mean geopolitical risk continues to climb.

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04/25/2024 | Morgan Stanley

SpaceX: Prepare for Liftoff

A look into the heavens to understand the next frontier of disrup tion on Earth. The Morgan Stanley Global Research team has collab orated to bring investors a comprehensive look at SpaceX, with special attention to its low earth orbit (LEO) satellite internet busi ness, Starlink.

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04/25/2024 | J.P. Morgan

GES: The Energy Transition

Since the Paris Agreement in 2015, governments and societies have sought to accelerate the transition from fossil fuel-based to renewable-based energy systems to reduce carbon emissions. However, following a global pandemic, tectonic geopolitical shifts, and higher inflation, we see greater fiscal-led pressure on governments ability to facilitate the transition.

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04/18/2024 | Center for Strategic & International Studies

SPACE THREAT ASSESSMENT 2024

Today, there are more satellites and systems in space providing services, information, and capabilities to people on Earth than ever before. While many of these systems have a civilian mission and are built and run by companies instead of governments, they also support U.S. national security.
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04/18/2024 | Deloitte

Tech Trends 2024

Three elevating forces (interaction, information, and computation) and three grounding forces (business of technology, core modernization, and cyber and trust) continue to be the bedrock upon which we build Tech Trends, Deloitte's annual exploration of the impact of emerging technologies.
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04/18/2024 | Bloomberg

China’s High Tech Hopes Risk Trade Blowback

China's efforts to develop high technology sectors has two strategic aims - to build new growth engines and increase supply-chain independence. As its progress on electric vehicles, lithium batteries and solar products shows, the policies are reaping rewards.

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04/18/2024 | J.P. Morgan

Data Center Deep Dive: The Most Ferocious Investment Inflection In Decades

While still early, it is increasingly clear to us that the data center vertical is facing the most dramatic infrastructure build out/capex inflection in any industry of note we have covered in the 25 years we have been watching the space.

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04/11/2024 | Foreign Affairs

No Substitute for Victory: America’s Competition With China Must Be Won, Not Managed

Amid a presidency beset by failures of deterrence—in Afghanistan, Ukraine, and the Middle East—the Biden administration’s China policy has stood out as a relative bright spot.
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04/11/2024 | Financial Times

Drugmakers race to find alternative suppliers as US cracks down on Chinese biotech

Western pharmaceutical companies are in talks with alternative suppliers in response to draft US legislation seeking to restrict an important Chinese drug developer and manufacturer over national security concerns.
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04/11/2024 | Bloomberg

US Officials to Pressure Dutch Government on China Chip Curbs

Senior US officials plan to visit the Netherlands next week to pressure the Dutch government to toughen its China chip equipment curbs, as the Biden administration ramps up its campaign to thwart Beijing’s technology ambitions.
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03/22/2024 | John M.B. O'Connor

Team Commentary

This week our committee discussion focused on the continuing escalation spiral between the US and PRC in decoupling the global semiconductor industry with each of the competitors seeking “autarky”. We provide articles on moves by the US to restrict technology flows to China, and China’s outspending the US in the race to build an independent indigenous industry. One cannot help but wonder how this industrial policy competition (1) impacts TSMC’s place in the world if the PRC and USA overbuild and (2) Has the US overlooked a critical vulnerability in legacy “commodity industrial chips and (3) how an arms race in semiconductors might trigger a geostrategic strike if one side or the other appears to be pulling ahead?

03/21/2024 | Bloomberg

China Readies $27 Billion Chip Fund to Counter Growing US Curbs

China is in the process of raising more than $27 billion for its largest chip fund to date, accelerating the development of cutting-edge technologies to counter a US campaign to thwart its rise.
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03/21/2024 | Foreign Affairs

A World Divided Over Artificial Intelligence

Through multinational communiqués and bilateral talks, an international framework for regulating AI does seem to be coalescing.
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03/21/2024 | J.P. Morgan

Autos & Semiconductors

Competitive pressure from new EV entrants has forced the automotive industry to innovate and digitalise the customer experience. Over the air software updates, no a key differentiating factor for OEMs, can improve a vehicl's performance by enhancing all aspects of a vehicle.

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03/02/2024 | J.H. Whitney Data Services

Team Commentary

This week we focus on two themes, one micro one macro.

Our micro theme is “Apple is in the soup (dumpling) “ See the FT article and UBS research report referenced in the article asking, and answering great questions about Apple valuation. Also see the article about market share challenges arising in China. We wonder if ownership of Apple devices is becoming a Social Credit Score issue?

Our macro theme is the coordination of capital markets and national technology priorities in the Middle Kingdom. The 5G => 6G transformation will not be cheap but the PRC will certainly wan to be the endgame winner.

Enjoy our selection and please send us your thoughts.

02/29/2024 | Bloomberg

Apple’s iPhone Steeply Discounted in China on Weak Demand

Apple Inc.’s resellers in China are slashing the price of iPhone 15 models by as much as $180, signaling an unusually prolonged slump in demand.
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02/29/2024 | Financial Times

‘Sell Apple’

The note’s from Andrew Garthwaite, UBS head of global equity strategy, whose team has (belatedly) published its 10 potential surprises for 2024. None represents the bank’s core views. For Apple, the analysts call for the stock to ascend gently to a $190-per-share price target to justify their “neutral” recommendation.
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02/29/2024 | UBS

10 Surprises for 2024

We have identified 10 potential surprises for 2024. These are events that are possible (i.e. where we think the risks lie) but are not the UBS or market-implied central case (as it is understood today).

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02/22/2024 | Foreign Affairs

The Taiwan Catastrophe: What America—and the World—Would Lose If China Took the Island

Washington and its allies face many potential geopolitical catastrophes over the next decade, but nearly all pale in comparison to what would ensue if China annexed or invaded Taiwan.
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02/22/2024 | Reuters

Dutch government says China seeks military advantage from ASML tools

Fears that ASML's computer chip equipment will be used for Chinese military ends underlie recent decisions to deny the company export licences, the Dutch trade minister said in answers to questions from parliament.
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02/22/2024 | Nikkei Asia

Eyeing China, Biden signs order to defend ports against cyberattacks

U.S. President Joe Biden signed an executive order on Wednesday to bolster defenses against cyberattacks on the nation's ports, as officials warn about the threat posed by Chinese hackers.
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02/22/2024 | Bloomberg

Odds of a Taiwan Strait Crisis? Not So Slim

We estimate a 25% chance of a major crisis in the Taiwan Strait in the next five years, within which we assess a 7 0% risk of some form of conflict. The odds mainland China and Taiwan instead find a peaceful, enduring solution to their differences? Unfortunately, much lower - we estimate around 5%.

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02/16/2024 | J.H. Whitney Data Services

Team Commentary

It’s not just about Taylor, Travis, Putin, Zelinsky, Biden, Trump, Netanyahu and the Magnificent 7. In addition to other great content this week, we highlight that we have seen increased analysis of the probability of US  v PRC conflict focusing on a Taiwan clash. Of particular note is a Bloomberg report which provides 7 scenarios ranging from enduring peace to outright military conflict. [Spoiler alert: military conflict twice as likely as enduring peace]. This while Taiwan Indexes reach all time highs.

Niall Ferguson published a brilliant thought experiment of what conflict [ Spoiler alert: and losing] might be like. Beyond this, a very detailed looks from CSIS. As always please favor us with comments.

02/15/2024 | Bloomberg

If You Think World War III Is Unimaginable, Read This

You might have thought that, having so recently lost a small war, Americans would have no difficulty picturing the consequences of losing a large one. But the humiliating abandonment of Afghanistan in 2021 has been consigned with remarkable swiftness to the collective memory hole.
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02/15/2024 | Bloomberg

Xi, Biden and the $10 Trillion Cost of War Over Taiwan

War over Taiwan would have a cost in blood and treasure so vast that even those unhappiest with the status quo have reason not to risk it. Bloomberg Economics estimate the price tag at around $10 trillion, equal to about 10% of global GDP — dwarfing the blow from the war in Ukraine, Covid pandemic and Global Financial Crisis.
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Topic of the week

05/08/2024 | Xinhua

U.S. ban on chip exports for Huawei is "economic coercion": China ministry

China's Ministry of Commerce on Wednesday accused the United States of "economic coercion" over the revocation of export licenses that permitted companies to supply chips to Chinese tech giant Huawei.
Read More

05/08/2024 | Yicai Global

Apple, Huawei Launch New Tablets on Same Day

US tech giant Apple and its biggest rival in China, Huawei Technologies, both released their latest tablet computers and other smart products yesterday as competition in the high-end intelligent device market intensifies.
Read More

05/08/2024 | Bloomberg

Huawei’s Pivotal Role in the US-China Tech War, from 5G to Chips

When the Trump administration blacklisted Huawei Technologies Co. in 2019 over spying concerns, the move almost wiped out the Chinese company’s global smartphone business. Yet it bounced back with the support of China’s government, and is now at the center of national efforts to achieve technological independence from the West.
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05/08/2024 | J.P. Morgan

The Great Transformation: Moving from a unipolar to multipolar world

Macro policy and easy financial conditions trump geopolitical risks in markets for now, but we believe that the conventional wisdom that geopolitical risks generate more noise than trend could be challenged by the ongoing shift to a multipolar world.

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05/02/2024 | Nikkei Asia

Fatal car crash mars Huawei's efforts to break into EV market

A fatal car accident involving a Huawei Technologies co-branded premium electric vehicle has tarnished the Chinese tech giant's attempt to break into the auto market through partnerships with carmakers.
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05/02/2024 | Bloomberg

Huawei’s Pivotal Role in the US-China Tech War, from 5G to Chips

When the Trump administration blacklisted Huawei Technologies Co. in 2019 over spying concerns, the move almost wiped out the Chinese company’s global smartphone business. Yet it bounced back with the support of China’s government, and is now at the center of national efforts to achieve technological independence from the West.
Read More

05/02/2024 | The Wall Street Journal

Apple Sales Fall as iPhone, China Businesses Remain Sluggish

Apple’s revenue declined for the fifth time in the past six quarters, dragged down by ailing iPhone sales and new competition from smartphone rivals in China. 
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05/02/2024 | Nikkei Asia

Vulnerable cloud services cast shadow over national security

Cloud outsourcing has become an indispensable part of digital society, but concern is mounting about the risk of entrusting personal as well as national data to such services.
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04/25/2024 | South China Morning Post

Huawei’s new Pura 70 series smartphone poses a threat to iPhone sales in China, say analysts

Huawei Technologies’ new Pura 70 series is posing a further threat to Apple in the world’s biggest smartphone market, as the Chinese tech giant eyes retaking the top spot on its home turf this year, analysts say.
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04/25/2024 | The Wall Street Journal

China Orders Apple to Remove Popular Messaging Apps

China ordered Apple to remove some of the world’s most popular chat messaging apps from its app store in the country, the latest example of censorship demands on the iPhone seller in the company’s second-biggest market.
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04/25/2024 | War on the Rocks

CHINA IS BATTENING DOWN FOR THE GATHERING STORM OVER TAIWAN

Chinese war drums beat on as pundits hotly debate if or when Beijing will try to seize Taiwan by force. There is no apparent countdown to D-day for initiating a blockade or invasion, but major strategic indicators clearly show that General Secretary Xi Jinping is still preparing his country for a showdown.
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04/25/2024 | Foreign Affairs

China’s Alternative Order And What America Should Learn From It

By now, Chinese President Xi Jinping’s ambition to remake the world is undeniable. He wants to dissolve Washington’s network of alliances and purge what he dismisses as “Western” values from international bodies.
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04/18/2024 | Nikkei Asia

Apple wants to spend more on suppliers in Vietnam, state media says

Apple wants to boost its investment in Vietnam, state media quoted the U.S. tech group's CEO Tim Cook as saying in Hanoi on Tuesday, a day after the U.S. company said it wanted to increase spending on suppliers in the Southeast Asian nation.
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04/18/2024 | South China Morning Post

Apple mulls first manufacturing facility in Indonesia after CEO Tim Cook meets Joko Widodo

Apple will look into building a manufacturing facility in Indonesia, its CEO said on Wednesday after meeting President Joko Widodo, who hoped the tech giant would increase its local content by partnering with domestic firms.
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04/18/2024 | Bloomberg

Huawei Unveils New Phone Lineup to Ramp Up the Pressure on Apple

Huawei Technologies Co. released its latest series of smartphones on Thursday, sustaining its momentum after the breakthrough Mate 60 device helped erode Apple Inc.’s dominance in China’s high-end segment.
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04/18/2024 | Bloomberg

Weak Apple 1Q iPhone Shipments Put More Pressure on 4Q

A drop of 10% in iPhone shipments in the March quarter, as reported by IDC, puts more pressure on Apple to showcase new AI capabilities in June at its developer conference, which is critical to drive any meaningful growth in 4Q.

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04/11/2024 | Foreign Policy

It’s Too Soon for Biden and Kishida to Take a Victory Lap

When U.S. President Joe Biden hosts Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida at the White House on April 10, both leaders, facing domestic political challenges at home, will be eager to tout the strength of the U.S.-Japan alliance—and with good reason.
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04/11/2024 | Nikkei Asia

How Japan's National Security Council rewrote China strategy

In the decade since the NSC was established, Japan's place in the world seems to have become much clearer. The senior secretariat official, who requested anonymity, explained why.
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04/11/2024 | Bloomberg

Biden and Kishida Enlist Amazon, Nvidia to Fund AI Research

President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida have enlisted Amazon.com Inc. and Nvidia Corp. to fund a new joint artificial intelligence research program, as the two nations look to improve collaboration around the quickly emerging technology.
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04/11/2024 | Foreign Affairs

America’s Best Friend in Asia: The Case for Elevating the U.S. Alliance With Japan

Alliances are a bit like families: you may not have a favorite member, but there is always one you depend on most. Throughout the Cold War, NATO was the collective ally that the United States depended on most in its global effort to stop Soviet expansionism.
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03/21/2024 | South China Morning Post

Chinese-origin researchers stand out in Apple’s 2024 AI scholarship programme, shining a light on mainland’s brain drain

Researchers of Chinese origin comprised more than half of this year’s recipients of Apple’s annual fellowship programme on artificial intelligence (AI), shining a light on a brain drain that threatens the nation’s ambition to become a global powerhouse in that critical technology.
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03/21/2024 | South China Morning Post

Intel still sells to Huawei millions of dollars’ worth of advanced chips, while AMD receives no such licence: sources

Intel has survived an effort to halt hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of chip sales to Huawei Technologies, two people familiar with the matter said, giving one of the world’s largest chip makers more time to sell to the heavily sanctioned Chinese telecoms company.
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03/21/2024 | Reuters

ASML's threat to leave uncovers deeper concerns in Netherlands Inc.

A threat by the Netherlands' largest company ASML to quit the country if it cannot grow there has laid bare wider corporate concerns that the nation's business climate is deteriorating.
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03/21/2024 | Reuters

STMicroelectronics CEO says China is a growth market despite US chip war

China remains an important growth market for French-Italian semiconductor STMicroelectronics, despite increasing U.S-China tensions over semiconductors, the company's chief executive said on Tuesday.
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02/29/2024 | Bloomberg

Alibaba Discloses State Ownership in More Than 12 Business Units

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. disclosed a wider web of Chinese government stakes in its business units than previously known, following an inquiry from the US Securities and Exchange Commission.
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02/29/2024 | Bloomberg

China's State-Backed Funds Have Bought $57 Billion of Stocks, UBS Says

China’s state-backed funds have poured more than 410 billion yuan ($57 billion) into onshore shares this year in a bid to prop up the market, according to estimates by UBS Group AG, which expects further purchases.
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02/29/2024 | Financial Times

China’s plan to reshape world trade on its own terms

Even during the first blush of the honeymoon period that attended China’s accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001, it was clear that Washington and Beijing were — as a Chinese idiom has it — “sharing a bed but dreaming different dreams”.
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02/29/2024 | The Wall Street Journal

ZTE, China Network Maker Shares Rise After U.S. Allies Unveil 6G Principles

Shares of ZTE and other Chinese telecom-equipment makers rose sharply after countries including the U.S., Japan and the U.K. issued a statement endorsing principles for the development of global 6G networks.
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02/22/2024 | Bloomberg

US Needs More Chips Funding as AI Fuels Demand, Raimondo Says

Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said that the US will need continued investments in semiconductor manufacturing to regain global leadership and meet demand from artificial intelligence technologies.
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02/22/2024 | Nikkei Asia

U.S. trade curbs spur China business for Japan chip industry

Japan's semiconductor equipment makers are enjoying strong demand from China, in part due to trade controls imposed by Washington and to Beijing stepping up efforts to boost the local chip industry.
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02/22/2024 | Bloomberg

How Japan Pulled Off an Early Victory in the Race to Make More Chips

On Feb. 24, TSMC will officially open its Kumamoto fab, putting it on track to begin mass production later this year. The ribbon-cutting marks an early victory for Japan as governments around the world race to establish domestic chip capabilities in the wake of Covid-era disruptions and growing geopolitical tensions.
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02/22/2024 | J.P. Morgan

Hardware & Networking

2024 Outlook: Leaning Further into AI in Networking and Compute, Valuations and Expectations of Recovery Remain Elevated Despite Recent Pullback

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02/15/2024 | Global Taiwan Institute

Geopolitics and Energy Security in Taiwan: A Refined Analysis

How can Taiwan best protect its oil industry, to include building resiliency and ensuring strategic oil reserves for both military and civilian use? This two-part article series seeks to address these questions by critically reviewing Taiwan’s oil supply chain, identifying key vulnerabilities, and offering policy recommendations.
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02/15/2024 | Bloomberg

Dimon Says China Risk-Reward Equation Has ‘Changed Dramatically’

China has been “very consistent” in opening up to financial-services companies, but calculating the potential upside for US firms has become more complicated, according to Jamie Dimon.
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02/15/2024 | Stimson Center

Would Anyone “Win” a Taiwan Conflict?

As US-China tensions persist and anti-China rhetoric ramps up in the U.S. presidential election campaign, many political contenders exude a casual bravado about a conflict with China. This mindset discounts the catastrophic economic costs of a conventional US-China confrontation.
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02/15/2024 | Center for Strategic & International Studies

The First Battle of the Next War

What would happen if China attempted an amphibious invasion of Taiwan? CSIS developed a wargame for a Chinese amphibious invasion of Taiwan and ran it 24 times. In most scenarios, the United States/Taiwan/Japan defeated a conventional amphibious invasion by China and maintained an autonomous Taiwan.
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01/24/2024

Financial Times: White House science chief signals US-China co-operation on AI safety

The US will work with China on the safety of artificial intelligence systems in the coming months, the White House’s top science adviser has said, signalling a rare co-operation between the two powers.
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01/24/2024

J.P. Morgan: Is the world economy deglobalizing?

Since the U.S.-China trade war began in 2018, and with increasing intensity during COVID, investors have expressed concerns about deglobalization. That’s the idea that the world is becoming less interconnected through trade, which has the potential to hurt financial markets, GDP growth and corporate profits.
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01/23/2024

Foreign Affairs: Containment for AI

The last two years have seen startling advances in artificial intelligence. The next few years promise far more, with larger and more efficient models, capable of real creativity and complicated planning, likely to emerge.
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01/23/2024

The Morgan Stanley Al Guidebook: Fourth Edition

We highlight ~30 new Al notes across Morgan Stanley Global Research. We focus on Al diffusion winners, macro productivity gains, healthcare, financial and education sector impacts. We also detail work on the software stack, gaming, Edge Al and our deep dive on Gen Al private companies.

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